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Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)
Tajikistan, despite its low greenhouse gas emissions, faces serious climate-related challenges. The country is already experiencing the impacts of climate change, including an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. In response, Tajikistan has updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, strengthening its commitments to reducing emissions and adapting to climate change.
Updating the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)
Tajikistan first submitted its NDC in 2015, which was ratified in 2017. The updated NDC outlines more ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and places greater emphasis on adaptation. The development of the updated NDC involved representatives from sectoral ministries, academia, international organizations, donors, civil society, the private sector, and the media, ensuring that a wide range of stakeholder perspectives were considered.
Greenhouse Gas Inventories
Tajikistan revised its greenhouse gas inventory using the 2006 IPCC Guidelines instead of the 1996 methodology. This led to a significant increase in previously reported emissions. The updated data shows higher emission levels for the period from 1990 to 2003 compared to later years. The main increase in emissions is linked to new estimates in agriculture and industrial processes.
Emission Projection Scenarios
Tajikistan has developed three emission forecasting scenarios up to 2030: baseline, unconditional, and conditional. The baseline scenario assumes implementation of all current mitigation measures. The unconditional scenario projects that by 2030 emissions will not exceed 60–70% of 1990 levels without substantial international funding. The conditional scenario, on the other hand, anticipates that with international support, emissions could be reduced to 50–60% of 1990 levels.
Priority Sectors
The updated NDC identifies five key sectors: energy, industry and construction, agriculture, transport, forestry and biodiversity. Specific measures and targets for emission reduction and climate adaptation are defined for each of these sectors. This approach enables Tajikistan to build a more resilient and low-carbon economy.
Conclusion
Tajikistan demonstrates a serious approach to addressing climate change by updating and strengthening its climate commitments. Through international support and domestic efforts, the country strives for sustainable development and significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Tajikistan’s updated NDC is an important step toward achieving global climate goals and ensuring a sustainable future for all.
Climate change significantly affects Tajikistan. The country’s climate and weather patterns are shaped by its mountainous geography. In winter, mountain temperatures can drop to –60 °C, while in summer, plains often exceed +40 °C. More than half of the country lies above 3,000 meters, with some peaks over 7,000 meters. Glaciers cover nearly 6% of the country’s area — twice the area of forest cover — and provide crucial water for the Amu Darya River.
Tajikistan is the least urbanized country in Central Asia. Its fast-growing population relies on traditional agriculture for food production and grows cotton on irrigated lands. Deforestation, soil erosion, and overgrazing increase vulnerability to the impacts of climate change.
Tajikistan is highly prone to natural disasters and is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change. Observed and expected effects include changing precipitation patterns, rising temperatures, shrinking glaciers, and more frequent extreme weather events. Long-term weather data show more hot days, fewer cold days, and large shifts in the timing and amount of rainfall.
Hydropower, a key energy source, is sensitive to weather and water conditions. Climate change complicates planning and operations of hydropower plants. Roads and settlements in the mountainous terrain face risks from avalanches in winter, floods in spring, and heatwaves and dust storms in summer.
To address these challenges, the country aims to integrate climate resilience into infrastructure planning and implement practical local adaptation measures. In agriculture, adaptation includes using greenhouses, planting drought- and frost-resistant fruit trees, and building shelters for livestock against extreme weather.
Thanks to hydropower, Tajikistan has the lowest greenhouse gas emissions in Central Asia — both in total and per capita — and among the lowest globally. Despite economic and population growth, Tajikistan has committed not to exceed its 1990 emissions level. The completion of Rogun and other hydropower plants could double the country’s clean energy capacity.
Agriculture remains a key source of emissions, but emissions per unit of agricultural output are the lowest in the region.
To improve climate resilience, Tajikistan is enhancing monitoring systems, improving water supply and healthcare, managing waste, reinforcing riverbanks, and modernizing hydropower infrastructure. Nature-based solutions to reduce disaster risk, like planting protective vegetation, are also prioritized.
Adaptation efforts include public awareness campaigns, better weather forecasting, and early warning systems. In agriculture, adaptation involves drought-resistant crops and soil protection. Greenhouses help shield plants from harsh weather.
Greenhouse gas emissions in Tajikistan remain among the world’s lowest. The expansion of hydropower contributes to reducing CO₂ levels. Major emission sources include agriculture, transport, cement production, and municipal services.
Climate change also affects the country’s water resources. Glacial retreat alters river regimes and Amu Darya flows. Avalanches, floods, heatwaves, and dust storms pose serious threats to the economy and population.
In conclusion, Tajikistan is making serious efforts to adapt to climate change by using natural resources efficiently and developing sustainable infrastructure. These actions help reduce the impacts of climate change and ensure stable economic growth and the well-being of the population.
