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Tajikistan, despite its low greenhouse gas emissions, faces serious climate challenges. The country is already feeling the effects of climate change, including an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. In response to these challenges, Tajikistan has updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, strengthening its commitments to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change.
### Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Update
Tajikistan initially submitted its NOW in 2015, which was ratified in 2017. The updated version of the NOB introduces more ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, as well as a stronger focus on adaptation. Representatives of line ministries, academia, international organizations, donors, NGOs, business and the media took part in the development of the updated NOV, which made it possible to take into account the views of a wide range of stakeholders.
### Greenhouse Gas Inventories
Tajikistan recalculated its greenhouse gas inventory using the methodology of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines instead of the 1996 methodology. This resulted in a significant increase in emissions previously reported. The updated data reflects higher emissions for the period from 1990 to 2003 compared to subsequent times. The main increase in emissions comes from new estimates in agriculture and industrial processes.
### Forecast Emission Scenarios
Tajikistan has developed three scenarios for forecasting greenhouse gas emissions until 2030: basic, unconditional and conditional. The base case assumes that all current mitigation measures are implemented. The unconditional scenario envisages that by 2030 emissions will not exceed 60-70% of 1990 levels without attracting significant international funding. The conditional scenario, in contrast, assumes that with international support emissions can be reduced to 50-60% of 1990 levels.
###Priority Sectors
The updated NOV includes five key sectors: energy, industry and construction, agriculture, transport, forestry and biodiversity. Each of these sectors has specific measures and targets to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change. This allows Tajikistan to build a more sustainable and low-carbon economy.
### Conclusion
Tajikistan is demonstrating a serious approach to combating climate change by updating and strengthening its climate commitments. Thanks to international support and domestic efforts, the country is committed to sustainable development and significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Tajikistan’s updated NOV represents an important step towards achieving global climate goals and creating a sustainable future for all.
Climate change has a significant impact on Tajikistan. The climate and weather conditions of the country are determined by the mountains. In winter, temperatures in the mountains can drop to –60 °C, and in summer on the plains they can exceed +40 °C. More than half of the country’s territory is located at an altitude of 3 thousand meters, and the height of some peaks exceeds 7 thousand meters. Glaciers cover nearly 6 percent of the country, twice the forest cover. Glaciers and snow reserves in the mountains provide water to the Amu Darya.
Tajikistan is the least urbanized country in Central Asia. Its rapidly growing population practices traditional agriculture for food production and grows cotton in irrigated fields. Deforestation, soil erosion and overgrazing increase the risk of climate change impacts.
Tajikistan is prone to natural disasters and is among the countries where climate change could be particularly disruptive. Already observed and expected consequences of climate change in Tajikistan include disruption of precipitation patterns, rising temperatures, shrinking glaciers, and extreme weather events. Long-term weather observations indicate an increase in the number of hot days, a decrease in the number of cold days, and significant fluctuations in the amount and timing of precipitation.
Hydropower is sensitive to weather conditions and the state of water resources, and the effects of climate change complicate the planning of this industry and the operation of hydroelectric power plants. Transport routes and settlements in the mountainous conditions of Tajikistan are subject to the destructive effects of avalanches in winter, flash floods in spring and heat and dust storms in summer.
To address the challenges posed by climate change, the country intends to specifically integrate climate resilience into the planning and upgrading of key infrastructure, as well as implement practical local adaptation measures. Adaptations in agriculture include using greenhouses to grow a variety of crops and planting frost- and drought-resistant varieties of fruit trees to protect against extreme weather events, as well as building heat and cold shelters for livestock.
Thanks to hydropower, Tajikistan’s greenhouse gas emissions, both overall and per capita, are among the lowest in Central Asia and among the lowest in the world. Despite economic and population growth, Tajikistan has committed to not exceed 1990 emissions levels. Completion of the Rogun and other hydroelectric power plants could double the country’s clean energy production capacity. Agriculture remains an important source of greenhouse gas emissions in Tajikistan, but the level of emissions per unit of agricultural production in the country is the lowest in the region.
To improve resilience to climate change, Tajikistan is improving monitoring systems, improving water and health systems, recycling waste and strengthening banks. An important area is also the modernization of hydropower facilities taking into account climate change, reducing the risk of natural disasters based on nature-based solutions and planting protective plantings.
Adaptation to climate change in Tajikistan includes education and awareness of the population about climate issues, improving weather forecasts and early warning systems for natural disasters. In agriculture, adaptation measures include the use of drought-resistant crops and soil protection. Building greenhouses helps protect plants from extreme weather events.
Greenhouse gas emissions in Tajikistan remain among the lowest in the world. The country is actively developing hydropower, which helps reduce CO2 emissions. Major sources of emissions in Tajikistan include agriculture, transport, cement production and utilities.
Climate change is also affecting the country’s water resources.
Glaciers are shrinking, which leads to changes in river regimes and fluctuations in the flow of the Amu Darya. Extreme weather events such as avalanches, floods, extreme heat and dust storms pose significant risks to economies and communities.
To mitigate the effects of climate change, Tajikistan is taking measures to improve monitoring systems, plant forests, improve water supply and healthcare, waste treatment, strengthen banks and modernize hydropower facilities. An important area is also educating and informing the population about climate issues, improving weather forecasts and early warning systems for natural disasters.
In conclusion, Tajikistan is making significant efforts to adapt to climate change by using natural resources and developing sustainable infrastructure. These measures help the country mitigate the effects of climate change and ensure stable economic development and well-being of the population.
